The enormous resurgence of COVID-19 in the country has shocked everyone. New records are being made every day owing to the exponential rise in infections. This second wave has been more contagious and dangerous than ever. In the midst of all this, IIT scientists have estimated the peak time of COVID-19 based on a mathematical model. The scientists have made an effort to interpret the second wave’s peak time and estimate the number of active and fresh cases at this peak time.
Based on their study, scientists have estimated that COVID-19 will wreak more havoc in the next 10 days. The researchers have concluded that about 4.4 lakh new cases will be reported daily. At the same time, there may be 38 to 48 lakh active cases during 14 to 18 May. As per the conclusions, this time frame of 14-18 May will see a record number of deaths.
IIT Kanpur’s professor, Manindra Agrawal explained that he has calculated numerous values for peak time and the last phase should be within his calculated range. Continuous change in the number of cases is one of the reasons for uncertainty in estimating the last phase. Further, the professor said that the peak timing of active cases of COVID-19 will be between 14 to 18 May and for new cases, it will be: 4 to 8 May. The active cases will be between 38 to 48 lakhs in this peak timing while the new cases may range from 3.4 to 4.4 lakhs.
After peak timing and value prediction updates, it can be said that the number of active cases in India will continue to increase almost till the middle of May before declining. According to the trend of the current model, the peak of mid-May will be almost four times higher than the peak of the first wave. The peak of the first wave recorded more than 1 million active cases. On Sunday, the total number of active cases in India increased to 2,682,751.
On April 1, this model estimated the peak of active cases on April 15–20, with the number of active cases expected to be 1 million. This figure was equal to the peak of last year. However, these figures were revised last week. The new figures have estimated the peak between 11 and 15 May with 3 to 3.5 million active cases.